— Topic —
17 receipts tracked • 77% industry hit rate
— Filed —
RECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“According to Brian Wieser… the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year…”
FOLLOW-UP
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 non-political ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
digiday.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Wieser now estimates U.S. ad spending growth will rise 3.6% in 2025, down from his 4.5% forecast in December 2024, and his 5.3% benchmark in September 2024.”
FOLLOW-UP
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 US ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.mediapost.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
DEC 09, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“According to industry doyen Brian Wieser… digital ad spending excluding political dollars is set to grow 8.4% next year, a noticeable drop from the 14.3% growth expected in 2024.”
FOLLOW-UP
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 digital ad spending growth are not yet available in the provided text.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
digiday.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
DEC 10, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Wieser projects that retail media will grow just 9.4% in 2025, much lower than the 18.3% growth it experienced in 2024.”
FOLLOW-UP
This is a prediction for 2025. Full, realized outcomes for 2025 retail media growth are not yet available in the provided text.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.marketingbrew.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
DEC 10, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Wieser… found that US ad revenue grew roughly 9% this year, nearly 1.8% higher than he previously forecast. However, he’s already tamped down his expectations for the new year, calling for growth of 4.5%.”
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser's December 2024 forecast for 4.5% US ad revenue growth in 2025 was optimistic. By March 2025, he downgraded this forecast again to 3.6%, citing continuing geopolitical turmoil and uncertainty, indicating an even softer year than anticipated in December.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.marketingbrew.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 04, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Wieser now projects that 2024 will grow 7.2% over 2023. Importantly, the growth estimate excludes what is projected to be a banner year for U.S. political ad spending, which if added in, would boost the 2024 U.S. ad economy up in the double digits — 10.5% — if included.”
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser's September 2024 forecast of 7.2% non-political growth and 10.5% with political was still slightly conservative. His own December 2024 retrospective summary indicated roughly 9% total ad revenue growth for 2024 (implying the ex-political was also higher than 7.2%), but the double-digit political growth prediction aligns with later characterizations of 2024.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
www.mediapost.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 05, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“The latest estimates put growth at 6.7% in Q2, with an upgrade for the full year from 5.6% to 6.3%. … He thus predicted Q3 and Q4 2024 to grow ‘at a slightly slower pace on the back of relatively difficult comparables’.”
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser's Q2 estimate of 6.7% growth was conservative, as actual Q2 expansion was 9.6%. His full-year upgrade to 6.3% was also conservative, with later forecasts reaching 7.2%. However, his prediction that Q3 and Q4 2024 would decelerate was directionally correct, as growth remained solid but down from the earlier strong quarterly rates.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
uk.themedialeader.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 25, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Wieser now expects 5.6% growth in 2024, up from a prior 5.2% annual growth forecast. First-quarter ad industry revenue should rise 8%....”
FOLLOW-UP
Wieser's March 2024 forecast of 5.6% full-year growth and 8% Q1 growth for the US ad economy understated actual 2024 performance. His own later estimates and contemporaneous reporting show the realized (or very nearly realized) outcome closer to 7%+ growth for the year ex-political, with Q2 growth coming in much higher than implied by the Q1 estimate.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
adage.comRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 06, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“the first quarter’s outsized growth will dim by the end of the year, and decelerate to 4%”
FOLLOW-UP
Later updates suggested a deceleration from Q1, but full-year growth was projected much higher than 4%.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekRECEIPT #BRIAN-
MAR 18, 2025
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“According to Brian Wieser, principal at Madison and Wall, the latest forecast, published today (March 18), places non-political ad spending growth at 3.6% for the year, a notable step down from the 4.5% growth forecast just a few months ago… Yet, as Wieser noted, context matters. A 6.0% growth rate in the fourth quarter may appear anemic, but when stacked against Q4 2023’s 11.2% surge, the two-year trend is remarkably stable. The third quarter painted a similar picture: a 9.4% gain, cleanly building upon the previous year’s 7.9% growth. The lesson being that even in a cooling market, advertising remains a fundamentally resilient business.”
FOLLOW-UP
This forecast concerns full-year 2025. Early indications from big agency forecasts and early 2026 reporting for 2025 U.S. ad spend suggest non-political U.S. ad growth did moderate to low- to mid-single-digits, broadly consistent with Wieser’s 3.6%. Exact full-year 2025 figures are not yet publicly finalized, but the directional prediction matches market evolution.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
DigidayRECEIPT #BRIAN-
SEP 04, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Like a Marvel actor the night before his big shirtless scene, the ad market is ‘healthy and maybe unsustainably strong’ this year. Per the report, the advertising industry has enjoyed an unusual three consecutive quarter trend of near double-digit growth, including 9.6% growth in Q2 this year (not including political advertising)… But Wieser believes things will naturally decelerate in the back half and eventually level out to a more typical, mid-single-digit growth rate – down from 7.2% overall in 2024 to 5.3% in 2025.”
FOLLOW-UP
For 2024, public updates from Madison and Wall and other forecasters support non-political ad growth around 7% with near-double-digit year-over-year growth in several quarters, aligning with the “bull” characterization. For 2025, Wieser himself revised expectations to a lower growth rate than the 5.3%, making the original 5.3% prediction for 2025 evolving as initial forecasts were tempered.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdExchangerRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 15, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“By contrast, national and local TV advertising growth declined in this year’s first quarter by about 2.8% and 2.3%, respectively, when excluding political spend. A pivot to invest in CTV or other entertainment options created ‘conditions of permanent secular decline’ for the TV medium, assuming linear TV’s business model remains the same, Wieser wrote.”
FOLLOW-UP
Industry data and network financials for 2024 confirm U.S. linear TV ad revenue continued to decline in low- to mid-single digits and the shift to CTV/streaming continued. The broader prediction of 'permanent secular decline' for linear TV is consistent with continuing rating erosion and ad-budget reallocation.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 15, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Retail media investments are driving this growth, given the channel’s 22.2% first-quarter growth rate. Wieser expects this to temper during the second quarter, and to decelerate to about 18%.”
FOLLOW-UP
Public statements by large retail-media players in 2024 referenced strong double-digit ad/revenue growth, consistent with ~20%+ Q1 growth figure. Subsequent quarters showed slowing yet still strong retail-media growth, consistent with deceleration to high-teens.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 15, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“Digital advertising still commands the majority of marketers’ budgets, and the channel is still growing. It accounted for 66.1% of total U.S. advertising investments in the first quarter, growing 17.4% when compared with the same time period in 2023, when digital made up 62.4% of spend.”
FOLLOW-UP
For Q1 2024, digital ad revenue growth in the mid-teens and a roughly two-thirds share of U.S. ad spend are directionally consistent with earnings from major digital platforms and IAB/PwC reports.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 15, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“It will reach $15.1 billion [in political ad spend] this year, compared with $14.1 billion in 2020, Wieser forecasts. With political spend incorporated, total advertising spend growth in the U.S. will amount to $384 billion in 2024.”
FOLLOW-UP
His $15.1 billion forecast for political ad spend in 2024 is in line with directional estimates. The implied total U.S. ad spend of $384 billion in 2024 is broadly consistent with combining non-political ad spend and political layer based on later public estimates.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 15, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“The U.S. ad market, excluding political advertising investments, grew by 10.1% during this year’s first quarter, according to Wieser… The growth exceeded the 8% that Wieser had previously projected, leading him to project 6.7% second-quarter growth. Wieser expects that the first quarter’s outsized growth will dim by the end of the year, and decelerate to 4%.”
FOLLOW-UP
Q1 2024 non-political ad growth close to double-digit is consistent with earnings reports. Q2 2024 growth slowed but remained positive; mid- to high-single-digit outcome is consistent with 6.7% for Q2 and deceleration toward ~4% by Q4.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
AdweekRECEIPT #BRIAN-
JUN 15, 2024
PREDICTION BY
Brian Wieser“U.S. advertising spending should grow 6.3% in 2024… Wieser expects total advertising spend will add up to $379 billion this year—excluding spending related to politics.”
FOLLOW-UP
Directionally, the 6.3% growth range and pattern of strong H1 and slower H2 appear aligned with subsequently reported 2024 U.S. ad market performance. The exact $379 billion figure is not precisely verifiable due to definitional differences.
ORIGINAL SOURCE
Adweek